FMF - Friends of Minerals Forum, discussion and message board

[David]

Most of the minerals you collect are probably millions of years old and they formed in complicated processes during millions of years. How long do you think they will survive from now on in human hands?
I think that minerals worth collecting are like oil, meaning exhaustible. It is clearly that once extracted they will be consumed (first damaged and in the end destroyed, turned into dust) and in human time it will take far too long for others to grow in their natural environment, under or above the Earth's crust. How long will it take until we exhaust the supply?
Well, most collectible minerals are by products of mining activities. Taking that into account, probably the peak in mining activities has already been reached (for example many mines in Europe are now closed or nearly closed), although new explorations occur, mainly in the developing countries (see for example the influx of minerals from Brazil and China) they will not be sustainable for long. Therefore maybe we could soon expect a shortage of fine collectible minerals (at the same time more and more people become interested in collecting minerals. If not, people are buying more jewellery and let's face it, jewellery is the strongest competitor for mineral collecting after mining itself, and many more people are interested in jewellery rather than collecting raw minerals).
Therefore, I expect to see in the future more and more damaged pieces on the market, glued on and, of course, many lab minerals. The prices will go higher and higher, until a flawless peace of something mineral (you name it) will become more expensive than a Picasso.
What do you think?

[lluis]

Hi, David

Well, you are right in one thing: we live in a closed finite system and all tends to exhaust, unless there is cycle of regeneration.

But lets see in another perspective: ancient coins are also limited in availability, and mainly come from recicling old collections.
Yes, some coins fetch astronomic prices....but probably in few time will return to its value.

Minerals are same: some pieces could fetch an astronomic prize, but that is not the case for all.
And I more and more am buying pieces from recicled old collections. That, personally, find even more fascinating, in direct proportion to the years that have passed from his first time as a piece of collection.
If properly cared, many minerals could withstand many, many centuries without much more trouble than some dust (I own pieces from the time of Napoleon. And no, they costed not me an arm and a leg, not even an eye)

Jewellery competing with specimens? well, a dealer could get far more from an specimen than from a cut stone. More, many magnificent specimens are not worth for cuting a piece, so, just two branches.
And some collectors have a set of specimen plus cut stone. So...

But that is just my opinion.

With best wishes

Lluís

[Gail]

[alfredo]

Rather pessimistic.

1 - Lots of minerals come from places other than "mines". Look at zeolites from India, for example - There will be more and more produced, inexhaustibly, as more rock is quarried in the vast expanse of the Deccan Traps. More population means more building and therefore more quarrying. Some trap rock plateaus are even less touched than the Deccan (eg: Siberia, southern Brazil).

2 - In high mountain areas more minerals are uncovered every year by landslides and glacier shrinkage, so more alpine-type veins will yet be uncovered in the Alps and Himalayas, for example. Erosion is not going to stop anytime soon.

3 - Only a relatively small area of the globe has been touched by mining activities. Most of the globe's surface has not even been scratched by mineral collectors yet... northern Canada, Siberia, Antarctica, Patagonia, the Arabian Peninsula, etc... Global warming, and infrastructure projects created because of increasing population, will make these areas more accessible to collectors, not less accessible.

4 - It might take another 100 years, but eventually humans will be collecting specimens on other planets, not just Earth.

5 - If the worst comes to the worst, you can always buy a good microscope and collect microminerals, like me :)) ...nice micro stuff is everywhere, even in beach sand... inexhaustible.

6 - Your comment on non-renewability of minerals is also not entirely correct. I collect volcanic fumarole minerals, and they renew themselves quite quickly. Likewise for evaporite minerals from salt lakes - California collectors will never run out of those Searles Lake crystals :))

7 - A lot of specimen production is hindered by bureaucratic obstacles rather than lack of minerals. Hopefully in time, with more democratization and modernization, specimen export regulations will be eased and then wait for avalanches of new minerals from places like Russia, Turkey, Egypt, Ethiopia....

At least over the last 18 years that I've been attending the biggest mineral shows, like Tucson, I notice a steady increase in the variety and quantity of specimens offered, and I don't expect that to decrease in my lifetime.

Optimistically yours,
Alfredo

[Carles Millan]

You might be right, but such a scenery will not happen in our lifetime, even if you are a teenager. There are still a lot of deposits to be discovered before the end of mineral collecting take place, if ever. And the many existing old collections will be, and are already being, recycled by younger collectors.

So don't worry and gather as much specimens as you like, and enjoy them.

[Turbo]

That's interesting. There will always be a need for resources and new resources for new technology, so as old mines close I think we'll continue to see more interesting minerals as new mines open in new places. Although it seems like a lot has been explored and exhausted, there's a lot of crust, so there is probably more mineral wealth than humans will be able to tap before our extinction. It would be interesting to know what the oldest collection is that still has good preservation and documentation. After all there must be some really old mineral collections out there. Maybe even specimens we are not used to seeing or that we don't see anymore.

[David]

Thank you alfredo for that thorough insight, hope you are right.
Collecting minerals from other planets? Those would be more expensive than a Picasso...
I can see a huge advantage in collecting microminerals, you never run out of storage space and I suppose they are alot cheaper...

[weaver]

The earth is rather large when you are talking about the size/quantity of specimens presented on these boards.

Also, there are deeper cave systems, unexplored areas (both above and under the ocean), and new specimens from sources like volcanoes. The end of mineral collecting would mean the end of the planet, as the Earth is literally MADE of this stuff.

The rest of this post is daydreaming:

What constitutes a specimen? What is considered collectible today, may become worthless tomorrow. Micro-samples could become a hot item of the future if resources were to somehow 'thin out.'

Consider what the future will be like: Meteorite hunting will become a new trend. Technology will allow people to track those kinds of objects easily. The same way we can send data and video over cell phones NOW, in 50 years, finding a nearby meteor will be as easy as having your phone setup. Hardware /software will record it's trajectory, and calculate GPS coords. It's not that complex. We'll see way more gathering of space debris, because our technology will allow us to find it. Anyone wil minimal technology would be able to chase down meteorites. There will be an app for it. ;)

The future also includes man-made gems. The purists won't be interested in that market. Technology will make some wild specimens. Somehow there will be people who follow it; look! there's already markets for man made finishes, coatings and whole structures! We will see more companies that produce all kinds of stuff. In the future, there will be technology that can create higher heat and pressures than is currently possible... chemists and geologists will cultivate greater levels of understanding to the processes- the possibilities are pretty much endless.

As far as the Earth, I think we'll see new specimens in every generation for a while...

[Carles Curto]

Very probably and definitively, human life will disappear long before minerals.

[Maxilos]

I think that in the end we find a way to make a synthetic minerals. Ofcourse we are already making some, but those have short formulas. I the end we can make synthetic tourmaline, hedenbergite, okenite, etc. which are an exact lookalike. And also what Alfredo said at point four: collecting from other planets.

Mark

[Dean Allum]

The concept of running out of mineral specimens is so foreign to me.

I regularly visit old mine sites in the Rocky Mountains having abundant dumps. They appear to have not been visited for decades.

I would like to add to Alfredo's list:

8) With depletion of Uranium, Rare Earth, and gold stockpiles, mines will open up in new localities such as Australia and Greenland. Unique mineral species will probably result from this.

9) Mines usually exist where minerals are present at or near the surface. Great expanses of land (plains) are covered by thick layers of soil. In the future, man might find efficient methods of prospecting for valuable minerals there.

10) Ocean floor mining was only rudimentary explored during the 1960s. The ocean floor represents 71% of the globe surface. Robotics may make the sea floor mine-able.

I also think that mining will be part of space exploration. On earth, our history is full of exploration conquests and settlements driven by the pursuit of gold. This is a GOOD thing! I was very disappointed with the movie Avatar. I was rooting for the miners.

-Dean Allum

[John Medici]

After mineral, fossil and other collecting in the field for nearly 50 years, I still have no fear that such activities for me and my family will dry up. We take great pleasure in the hunt, akin to an Easter egg hunt, the discovery of something new, especially when pristine, and the preservation of the things found, especially when they are saved from the quarry crusher, weathering destruction (especially fossils), etc.
Increases in prices have brought more care in collecting, at least providing some material with less damage for discerning collectors/buyers. Of course more fakes also appear with higher prices too.
I agree with Alfredo et al. that the Earth should provide plenty of collectable material for a long time to come.

[gpander]

Pretty much like everything we have on Earth, the resources are finite and there will come a time when we will run out of minerals to get and by then, we ultimately have to move on and start anew with finding whatever is left.

Though I think that the next possible option is to see what new rocks we can get for us to rave over.

There will be a lot of new things we can start getting anyway.

[Riccardo Modanesi]

Hi to everybody!
Fully agree: human life will disappear long before minerals. However (it doesn't want to be a sentence of bad manner to older people, don't misunderstand me please!) I'm 47 and the time has come I must think about my collection after my life, whom can I let it when I am no longer in this world! Ok I have all the time to think about, but it's time I have to think about! I'm sure if it goes to rightful hands it will survive my life for long!
Greetings from Italy by Riccardo.

[David]

Although I’m rather young I’ve put myself that question, what should happen with my collection in the end. I thought of several options. First I could give it to someone truly passionate about it, not necessarily a close relative. Another option would be to donate it to my former college (Geography). In the end, if the local Geology Museum thinks its worth, I would give it to them. But In the meantime I enjoy expanding and upgrading my collection.