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Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19
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Ricky hartzog




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PostPosted: Mar 15, 2020 16:47    Post subject: Re: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19  

What I mean by nothing going on is all schools are closed all events canceled
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Bob Harman




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PostPosted: Mar 15, 2020 18:37    Post subject: Re: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19  

A few more facts, both medical and otherwise about the Coronavirus.

Where did this virus come from? The first recognized cluster of cases appeared about early December 2019 in Wuhan China. Whether those were really the true first human cases is difficult to say. The generally accepted appearance had to do with a filthy dirty meat market that was selling bat meat......in China virtually anything is eaten by somebody! The virus seems to have jumped from being found in a population of bats to humans. Not, in and of itself, unusual. Lots of viruses have been known to jump from animals to humans.
Conspiracy theories are common with any major situation. One with this virus is that it was either accidentally or purposefully released from a biological warfare lab in China or North Korea. There is absolutely NO evidence of this.
Can we believe current reports from China that there is improvement? Personally, I and many other health professionals, take all these reports from there with a large grain of salt. China is still a relatively closed society from a political point of view. The government does not take popular dissent lightly, so they send everyone back to work etc, saying that all is "getting better" and "back toward normal". Maybe their people and all of us are lead to believe it, but.....well, who really knows!

Infected individuals can release virus particles for several days to at least a week after infection. The virus infectivity potential is very high, several times higher than the usual flu virus. About 6 feet between folks is recommended as a safe space, but in a crowded area with multiple infected individuals, the air all around will contain particles.....no space might be safe.

Young children seem to be less affected, but, to date, we don't have much info on this. Older individuals, those over 60 yo, especially those with other health conditions are really at risk of serious disease. The death rate is several times higher than that of the seasonal flu. The actual death rate might change.....going up or down.....as more case statistics become available. I have not heard much about smoker's risk; however I assume that since pneumonia is common in seriously ill individuals, long term smoking further increases the risk.

The UK, to my understanding as of yesterday, seems to want to expose hi numbers of low risk younger individuals to the possibility of being infected with this virus. This is so called "herd immunity". The theory being, if most everyone is exposed, most all will develop a mild disease with some level of immunity over a short period of time and the actual disease rate will decline quicker. Health officials are skeptical. The biggest risk is the unknown about this virus. There is a significant chance that older, at risk folks, will get seriously ill in large numbers, straining and overwhelming the health care system and hospitals. There is evidence of this adverse outcome right now in Northern Italy.

As was mentioned, cancelling shows, events, lectures, all gatherings etc is the way to go. But it affects not only the dealers/collectors, but the clubs, concession employees, motels, restaurants etc so there is a big economic ripple effect.
As was noted above, online dealers might benefit. Also prices on some mineral specimens might actually drop as the dealers still have to pay their bills so, to spur sales, they might have specimens on "special sales"

Best advice is still to stay home and watch the next few weeks happenings with this situation. Remember that in 1918, the Spanish Flu killed an estimated 50 million(!!) people.
Those numbers are "nothing to sneeze at" .....ho, ho, ho!. By mid April we will see if the disease progresses or begins to wane. BOB
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Ricky hartzog




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PostPosted: Mar 15, 2020 19:20    Post subject: Re: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19  

Hopefully it will be over soon and we can all get back to our lives without the fear of getting sick. I hope anyone who reads this doesn't get sick, and if you do I pray you get better. Stay healthy and be safe
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Don Lum




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PostPosted: Mar 15, 2020 19:39    Post subject: Re: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19  

I am an actively practicing MD physician (specialty dermatology) and former clinical professor of dermatology at the medical school. I won't discuss the COVID-19 as it has been very well covered by other members of the FMF.

This thread that Jordi started is eerily reminiscent of the post-apocalyptic novel and later movie of the 1950's, " On the Beach." The people of Australia were waiting and wondering when the radiation from the nuclear holocaust would reach them. People were trying to communicate with others all around the world. Different circumstances but similar mood. Back then long distance communications were done by ham radio and telegraph. Thankfully we have the internet now.

Antibodies have been isolated from a patient who was an early survivor of the COVID-19. Drug companies and biotech companies are working hard to develop a vaccine and/or an effective antiviral medication now that they have the complete genome sequence of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus.

These really are "Times that try men's souls."

Stay well.

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Peter Lemkin




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PostPosted: Mar 16, 2020 01:32    Post subject: Re: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19  

To the point about whether the 'reports' from China of having 'won the battle' over Covid-19, I think it is likely partly true and partly propaganda. They took draconian measures and that helped stop the spread. But, they realized that NO COUNTRY can remain in lock-down and retain a functioning economy or society...so are now relaxing the harsh measures. My educated prediction is that this will cause a new increase, even if at a less precipitous rate and then there will be new repressive measures. The exact same will happen in Europe and every other country that tries drastic measures. That is NOT to say that drastic measures are not warrented - I think they are, if some are ill-considered [and others not]....so this is a longhand way to say that this virus is going to be with us for a LONG time and it will appear in waves as repressive measures to close down most of normal life and congregations of persons are put in place and then relaxed. A virus like this does not just disappear after one 'lock-down' or other drastic measure. They are necessary, but NOT sufficient. It will be a year or two before most of the World population have some antibodies agains this novel virus. Prevention is an easier strategy and there is very little discussion of that. This came from bat-human contact [in this case, apparently the eating of bats in China]. Such must come to an end whatever the historic and cultural norms have been. Yes, a vaccine or anti-viral that works will help [but is likely months to a year away, unless some research team gets very lucky!], but in the 1918 pandemic the death toll rose and fell with weather [lesser in summer] and other factors, but lasted two years. I expect much the same here. Our interconnectivity is MUCH greater now than in 1918, so even remote S. Pacific Islands sadly will be effected.....even those at Antarctic research stations eventually. This is truely a major event in human history and one lessons need to be learned from. I'm sorry to say the lessons as I see them most will not like - such as overpopulation; destruction of natural habitat by humans, etc. We are all in this together and any nation that thinks it can 'go it alone' is being stupid. The numbers of cases in the USA are likely being under-reported by a factor of 10-20x due to the lack of testing [still!]....and the USA is just at the beginning of the curve upward that all epidemiologist are familiar with, as each person with the virus on average spread it to five other persons [as best as can be determined now - this may change up or down...most likely upward]...so there becomes an steep rise in case until drastic action is taken - as has now begun in many countries. Outside my window in Prague it is a ghost town, with people only walking their dogs or going for food and to the pharmacy. I happen to be in the middle of legal battle and even the Courts are now on leave....... reading a lot of mineral books lately and taking walks in the parks with my dog.
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Riccardo Modanesi




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PostPosted: Mar 16, 2020 08:13    Post subject: Re: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19  

Hi to everybody! As the biggest majority of you know, I live in Milan. Here in Lombardy the situation is dramatic. Just yesterday 369 people died. Schools have been closed since February 24 in Lombardy and since March 9 in the whole Italy. Just food stores and pharmacies are open, I am allowed to leave home just for food shopping or medicines by the chemist's. Police can stop me and make me fill a form to justify my exit. If not, I can be fined and arrested, up to 12 years jail! Twelve years! This is our situation.
Greetings from Italy by Riccardo.

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Hi! I'm a collector of minerals since 1973 and a gemmologist. On Summer I always visit mines and quarries all over Europe looking for minerals! Ok, there is time to tell you much much more! Greetings from Italy by Riccardo.
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Peter Lemkin




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PostPosted: Mar 16, 2020 10:33    Post subject: Re: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19  

Riccardo Modanesi wrote:
Hi to everybody! As the biggest majority of you know, I live in Milan. Here in Lombardy the situation is dramatic. Just yesterday 369 people died. Schools have been closed since February 24 in Lombardy and since March 9 in the whole Italy. Just food stores and pharmacies are open, I am allowed to leave home just for food shopping or medicines by the chemist's. Police can stop me and make me fill a form to justify my exit. If not, I can be fined and arrested, up to 12 years jail! Twelve years! This is our situation.
Greetings from Italy by Riccardo.


...that IS DRAMATIC and very sad. No one has quite figured out exactly why Northern Italy became the new epicenter of the pandemic. It will keep moving to new places. Here, in Prague I've tried to get face masks, but all are sold out. There is a Czech producer, but their actual manufacture was in China and the Chinese refuse to let the company have their own stock! Now they say they have set up a production facility here, but even their website is so overloaded it barely works and every model says 'sold out'. I just took my dog in the car [we are still allowed to go places other than the few open food and pharmacies] to a large park...it was like after a nuclear war...there was no one walking there, as there usually are. They are thinking of passing similar laws here as you have there, but have not yet. However, the roads were empty and one can park in the middle of the old town - something impossible in normal times. You really have it bad in Italy and I feel for you....... Now we know a little how it must have felt during the Black Death Plague during the Middle Ages.....
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Don Lum




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PostPosted: Mar 16, 2020 11:00    Post subject: Re: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19  

I woke up this morning to the news that Spain is now the new "hot spot" for the coronavirus.
The first case of COVID-19 diagnosed in Arkansas was in the hospital across the street from my clinic early last week.

To Jordi and all, stay well.

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R Saunders




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PostPosted: Mar 16, 2020 12:16    Post subject: Re: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19  

Michigan is shutting down many things including some outdoor places most likely mini golf and go-cart rides, well it is cold out, Gyms and more. A new directive out is that all Masonic Lodge Temple buildings are shuttered even to renters. At least I can still go rock hunting at the Lake Michigan beaches and work my fossil dig site.
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Philippe Durand




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PostPosted: Mar 16, 2020 13:19    Post subject: Re: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19  

One should consider that it will be long, very long

And do not consider hot spots as somewhere else than your city, because your city too, will be concerned as a hot spot; it is just a matter of time

The mortality is basically close to 2%, but it could grow with the saturation of the hospitals.

Be very careful

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Jordi Fabre
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PostPosted: Mar 16, 2020 15:09    Post subject: Re: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19  

Philippe Durand wrote:
...and do not consider hot spots as somewhere else than your city, because your city too, will be concerned as a hot spot; it is just a matter of time...

Everyone is right, but trying to be a little more optimistic, this coronavirus is not particularly killer. Most people die from complications due to their age or from being immunosuppressed (or similar) At the moment very few healthy or young people have died and the childrens seem to be asymptomatic (although unfortunately they carry the virus)

Why in Italy and Spain (and in many more countries soon) we are so "blocked" and we should still be for a long time? Well, to prevent our healthcare systems from collapsing. CV-19's incredibly fast propagation speed causes many people to become ill in a very short time and this causes health systems to burst, with the potential danger that they cannot attend to other diseases and this can lead to a sharp increase in mortality.

We have to strongly maintain 'on life' our health systems, they are the real victims of CV-19 and, for the moment, the only method known to do it is to reduce the speed of propagation of CV-19 by isolating ourselves from each other totally, or, in the Korean way, making hundreds of thousands tests to everyone, a system that unfortunately is not possible with the health resources and the way of life of our Western democracies.

Let's be optimistic, it is a terrible storm, but it will pass. What I don't know if it will pass so easily is the economic disaster that it will leave behind it...
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Peter Lemkin




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PostPosted: Mar 16, 2020 15:49    Post subject: Re: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19  

2% mortality rate seems the best guess now, but it is too early to tell the real number and it will be much higher in developing nations, poor nations, nations with limited healthcare facilities needed for breathing support etc. This % is about the same as for the 1918 pandemic. I hate to do the math and put the result here because this is more infective, infects when people are asymptomatic and there are many more people now than in 1918 [4,5x], plus the greater movement between parts of the world of people and things,.......the number [I just did the calculation] is mind-numbingly high total death toll.....I'll not write it to keep people from getting too depressed and will hope I'm wrong.

The only thing that could change the HUGE number [nine digit] would be someone finding an antibody or other anti-viral that lowers or stops the morbidity....VERY soon! One will eventually be made [such is the state of technology now], but usually these take a year or two to make and test.....too late for too many. The '1918' flue pandemic actually lasted a full two years. It is not impossible this one could last from six months [likely minimium governments have so far been afraid to tell] - to a year - but if it does not it will likely be in waves according to season [less in summers, more in winters]. The scariest part of this virus I left for last...there is growing evidence that some percentage of persons who recover can be re-infected [this doesn't happen with other flu viruses] AND there is some evidence that it is mutating to more virulant strains in some places [such as Iran now].....so this one is a BAD one, and yes, it will effect the World economy deeply. I think it will also make many re-evaluate entire political, social, health and other systems in which they live - and how their political and other leaders where they live handled this crisis. We are all in this together and we can only get out of this if we act together......intelligently...using science and medicine. Sadly, there will be [already are!!] restrictions on personal freedoms - and these MUST be reasonable and made to seem reasonable to the public or there will be unrest on a large scale. I'm sure we will make it through this...but I predict the World will be changed in ways we can not forsee; however, we have control over how we react to and handle this crisis!

...and to think this very likely started with one bat purchased in China for food.... Ebola also started with bats infecting a few persons in Africa......

So, love your minerals as well as your friends, family, pets, Nature.....this is going to be a 'bumpy' and rough ride...... especially in cities.
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Jordi Fabre
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PostPosted: Mar 16, 2020 18:01    Post subject: Re: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19  

Third day, Monday March 16 2020

As this seems that will be long better use the humor.



He couldn't wash his hands.jpg
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The translation is:

He couldn't wash his hands...
and is now extinct!
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R Saunders




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PostPosted: Mar 16, 2020 18:14    Post subject: Re: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19  

Or


bz-DINO-ARK-11-16-08.jpg
 Mineral: another theory
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cascaillou




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PostPosted: Mar 16, 2020 22:27    Post subject: Re: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19  

In France, it has been suggested that for the next two weeks people should either stay at home or go to work. Either we don't need a quarantine, or we need a real one, but a half-quarantine doesn't make any sense (what if half the population stays home and the other half just goes to work?). Why not also provide sick people with only half of a treatment, let's see how it goes...
Also, 2 weeks of quarantine for a disease that can have up to 2 weeks of incubation period, but without any screening unless severe symptoms are experienced (which could occur only in the third week)?
Am I missing something?
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Dany Mabillard




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PostPosted: Mar 17, 2020 05:47    Post subject: Re: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19  

cascaillou wrote:
In France, it has been suggested that for the next two weeks people should either stay at home or go to work. Either we don't need a quarantine, or we need a real one, but a half-quarantine doesn't make any sense (what if half the population stays home and the other half just goes to work?). Why not also provide sick people with only half of a treatment, let's see how it goes...
Also, 2 weeks of quarantine for a disease that can have up to 2 weeks of incubation period, but without any screening unless severe symptoms are experienced (which could occur only in the third week)?
Am I missing something?


I totally agree with you. Same decision in Switzerland.

Have a nice and safe day.
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PostPosted: Mar 17, 2020 17:44    Post subject: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19 - Fourth day  

Fourth day, Tuesday March 17 2020 in Barcelona

This is going to be tough and long...



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Peter Lemkin




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PostPosted: Mar 17, 2020 23:54    Post subject: Re: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19 - Fourth day  

Jordi Fabre wrote:
Fourth day, Tuesday March 17 2020 in Barcelona

This is going to be tough and long...


Yes, Si, Oui, Da, Ano, Ja, it is going to be tough and much longer than officials have had the courage to tell the public yet. I studied Public Health at Yale, and from what I know and from what I've heard from health experts [not heard on the internet and in public addresses for the most part], the bare minimum for this would be six months and 1, 1.5 to even 2 years is not impossible. Of course, no society can manage with a complete 'lock-down' for such a long time...and in fact one doesn't need to. Until a drug or vaccine is found [it could happen quickly, but usually it takes - on average - 1.5 years], there will have to be tightening and loosening periods. [i.e. times you are told or commanded to not go out except for essential reasons; other times when you will be allowed for some weeks to have only partly reduced movement]. This will vary by culture, country, density of population, healthcare system, political leaders vs. scientific best practice. It is [sadly] the correct thing to do to have a draconian lock-down at the beginning to slow the spread and awaken the public to just how serious the situation is. Sadly, the most vulnerable [old, ill with other conditions, homeless, those in prison and other forced confinement] will suffer most, generally. Everyone is going to have to adapt to several periods of near or total lock-down, spaced between less dramatic periods - but we need to move much more of our life for now to online and even meetings and 'gatherings' by remote skype-like programs. They already exist for education and business if one looks. The better ones cost some money, but free ones exist too, with fewer good features. It will end and then one needs to shift to preventing this from ever happening again. It will fundamentally change how we view life and things we have taken for granted. Sorry for the 'bad news'. Those who think this will be just for a couple of weeks and then gone are going to be very disappointed, and I think in shock when they learn the truth. That said, it will NOT always be so drastic as it is now in Spain, France, Italy....in fact some of the measures taken [no country to country movement] have no practical value and only hurt people. This has to be science driven by experts and not run by politicians who only understand it third hand. A last hopeful note: There are some anti-coronavirus drugs that have been developed over the last few years. In vitro and animals they work well....but they have to be tested on humans before they can be generally distributed...and that takes months. The virus can also mutate [as is common] to either less or more virulent forms. These drugs show great hope, but they are not ready yet, and governments and wealthy donors need to fund them to work better, faster, with more resources. We are at 'war' with this disease and it will take a 'war mentality' to win and get out of it, back to something resembling normal life....it will come...but not as soon as most hope and think. Sorry to say all this. I'd love to be wrong....I think not......
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Dany Mabillard




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PostPosted: Mar 18, 2020 13:12    Post subject: Re: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19  

I just received the news that the medical consultations of my orthopedist will close for one month. The situation must be very bad if they begin to postpone my first consultation after a hip replacement. I totally understand the decision because we must put priorities but it's a signal of the gravity of the situation in Switzerland too.
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Peter Lemkin




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PostPosted: Mar 18, 2020 14:19    Post subject: Re: Stay at home - Coronavirus / Covid-19  

Wow, it is getting crazy in the Czech Republic now! Yesterday one could NOT get on a tram/train/bus without having a mask [even though masks are IMPOSSIBLE TO BUY, and most do not have them]. Today at midnight it will be ILLEGAL to go outside without a mask!...and for persons my age and older you can only go to any shop between 10-12 [which is illogical from my epidemiology training]. The fine is about 800 Euro maximum. What next?! I live alone and have a dog who must go out frequently. Oh, my, this will NOT be easy. Every day there is a new and more drastic emergency rule!......... I resent having to plan my day to go out shopping only for two hours and two exact hours.
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